Assistant Professor FAMU-FSU College of Engineering
Urban stormwater management faces pressing challenges due to rapid urbanization and the effects of climate change necessitating effective solutions. Green infrastructure (GI) presents an evidence-based approach to mitigate excessive runoff and nutrient loading. In this study, we focused on the Sweet Creek watershed in Hillsborough County, West Central Florida, aiming to discern the implications of climate change on stormwater GI strategies. Our initial step involved gathering and utilizing existing data on land use, soil characteristics, and impervious surfaces to refine the urban watershed model of the area. The Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) was used to estimate peak runoff and nutrient loads. Following calibration and validation, the model demonstrated an R-squared value of 0.89 and RE of 18.98%. Climate data were then collected from five Global Climate Models (GCMs) for two specific scenarios: SSPS 245 and SSPS 585. These data were subsequently downscaled and bias-corrected using empirical quantile mapping approach. Using the downscaled data, we computed rainfall intensities for various design storm events spanning three distinct periods: 1985–2014, 2020–2049, and 2070–2099. We leveraged these rainfall intensities to evaluate the effectiveness of GIs in reducing peak runoff and nutrient loads under both current and anticipated future climatic conditions. The outcomes of this simulation were integrated with results from a GI planning tool ‘iplanGreenS2’ previously developed by our team. This study will aid in the adoption of the most cost-effective GI solution based on runoff reduction, nutrient reduction, and life cycle cost under various climate change scenarios.
