494 - Impacts of Climate Change on Hydrodynamics and Thermal Structure of Green Bay, Lake Michigan

Climate change can affect the patterns of circulation and thermal structure of lakes and coastal areas in the Great Lakes region. Future planning for infrastructures and resource allocation requires a thorough knowledge of hydrodynamics of the lakes under a changing climate. Green Bay has a long history of excessive algal production and hypoxia, and evidences show that it has been getting worse in recent decades due to longer summer stratification and warmer climate. This research aims to investigate the effect of climate change on hydrodynamic behavior of Green Bay, which is crucial in future water quality and biogeochemical studies . Downscaled regional climate change data for mid-century conditions from Global Climate Models (GCM) was used as input to a hydrodynamic model. Model predictions of the atmospheric forcing, heat exchange across the water surface, water exchange between Lake Michigan and Green Bay, and circulation and thermal regime in the bay were analyzed under two climate change scenarios, namely the 90% and 10% percentile rank increments in summer temperature. The results show important changes in lake hydrodynamic regimes, in particular temperature patterns in the southern Green Bay, including the EPA the area of concern (AOC). The outcome of this research also provides a procedure that can be used by researchers and managers to investigate climate change effects in other coastal areas in the Great Lakes region.