Associate Professor of Civil & Environmental Engineering University of Wisconsin - Madison
Dengue is a mosquito-borne viral disease representing a significant global public health burden, particularly in urban areas of tropical and sub-tropical countries including Colombia. Dengue is spread primarily by the Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus mosquitos. Hydroclimatic variables are known to influence the prevalence of dengue by impacting vector population development, viral replication, and human-mosquito interactions. Several variables including large-scale climate phenomena (ENSO), temperature, precipitation, and relative humidity have been identified as important predictors of dengue burden at lead times of weeks to months. Development of dengue forecasts based on hydroclimate variables has shown promise in applications to dengue surveillance and decision making. Little work has been done, however, to assess the predictability of the hydroclimatic conditions associated with increased dengue burden and to establish optimal trigger mechanisms for anticipatory actions to reduce disease risk, particularly in the Amazon region. Building on existing work identifying hydroclimatic drivers of dengue in four cities across Columbia (Cali, Cucuta, Leticia, Medellin), predictability of these hydroclimatic conditions is explored at sub-seasonal to seasonal time scales. Additionally, optimal trigger thresholds are assessed for forecast-based early actions to inform dengue interventions.
