435 - Analysis of Land Use Land Cover Change (LULC) in a Watershed with High Urbanization Potential Using the CA-Markov Model

Land Use Land Cover (LULC) change is a crucial factor in understanding the evolving dynamics of urban and natural landscapes, especially in rapidly growing urban areas like Charlotte, North Carolina. This study employs the Cellular Automata-Markov (CA-Markov) modeling approach to forecast LULC change in the Charlotte watershed over multiple time periods. The primary objective of this research is to utilize the MRLC land use data from 2001 and 2013 to predict land cover conditions in 2021, with a focus on validating these predictions against actual MRLC data from that year. This validation step ensures the accuracy and reliability of the CA-Markov model. Subsequently, the same model will be employed to simulate LULC changes for the years 2050 and 2080, accounting for various scenarios and factors, including urban expansion, slope, geography and road networks. The findings indicate substantial growth in urban areas at a rate of 14% to 24% by 2050 and 38% by 2080. This rapid expansion is associated with a decline in agricultural land and forest area, potentially leading to significant hydrological impacts within the watershed. This study serves as a crucial step towards comprehending the evolving dynamics within the Charlotte watershed. By accurately predicting land cover transitions and using them as a foundation, we can delve deeper into the analysis of hydrological alterations that may arise as a consequence of these LULC changes within the watershed.